THE COURT OF MIRACLES OF HYDROLOGY

 
     Paris,18-20 June 2008
A scientific workshop

organized at
ENGREF-AgroParistech


 

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 Book of abstracts

 
    Session 1: How much bizarre is really bizarre?
 

This session focused on the problems related to the observation, the description and the definition of hydrological monsters, without a priori reference to modelling. Presetations dealt with:

  • Descriptive studies illustrating ‘bizarre’ or ‘monstrous’ catchment behaviour or events (in comparison with neighbours, usual behaviour or in terms of hydrological ‘good sense’). Note that monstrous behaviours may occur not only in relation with discharge, but also with precipitation, concentrations;

  • Change of behaviour through time, non stationarity.

Keynote presentation How much bizarre is really bizarre?   Rémy Garçon and Thibault Mathevet
Poster Monsters never behave like my model... nor like their neighbors   Vazken Andréassian, Nicolas Le Moine, Charles Perrin and Julien Lerat
Poster Climate change effect or improvement in the measurement device?   Bénédicte Augeard, Julien Tournebize, Patrick Ansart and Gaëlle Tallec
Poster Study monster floods on ungauged catchments   Eric Gaume
Poster Statistical estimation of precipitation over French mountain ranges   Frederic Gottardi and Charles Obled
Poster Uncertainty of our streamflow data: a few concepts to show hydrometrical monsters!   Thibault Mathevet, Cécile Carré, Rémy Garçon and Christian Perret
Poster Water and sediment yield during extreme events in mountainous marly catchments (Draix, Alpes-de-Haute Provence, France)   Nicole Mathys, Michel Esteves and Sébastien Klotz
Poster Can weather radar data be deregularized?   Thomas Pfaff and Andras Bardossy
Poster High altitude outliers: When snow under-catch combined with altitudinal gradients yield unbelievable water balance results  Audrey Valery and Vazken Andréassian
Short presentation Do monsters resist to rating curves scrutiny ? Michel Lang
 
     Session 2 : A priori good-looking and weird catchments: why do they turn into a modeller’s nightmare?
 

 This session focused on unexpected or apparently unsolvable modelling problems, on the issue of model adequacy at the local or regional scale, and on how we can learn from monsters. Presetations dealt with:

  • The relevance of various modelling approaches (empirical, conceptual, physically-based) and their evolution / combination for processing monsters;

  • The role of spatial (lumped, semi-distributed, distributed) and temporal discretization in representing the variability of the natural system;

  • The means to detect monsters and to evaluate the robustness, generality and extrapolation capacities of models (criteria, methods, regional approaches);

  • The ways to transform monsters into a source of improved knowledge.

Keynote presentation Both good-looking and weird catchments can turn into a modeller’s nightmare  Jens Christian Refsgaard and Jeppe Rølmer Hansen
Poster The hunting of the hydrological Snark  Vazken Andréassian and Nicolas Le Moine
Poster Artificially sub-surfaced drained watershed: A simpler or more complex hydrology?  Claire Billy, Bénédicte Augeard, Hocine Henine, Julien Tournebize and Yves Nédélec
Poster Comment faire plus d’écoulement avec moins de pluie ? (How to increase discharge with less rainfall)  Alain Dezetter and Jean-Emmanuel Paturel
Poster The failure story of modeling the Somme River basin with a catchment-based Land Surface Model: outlier catchment or outlier model?   Simon Gascoin
Poster A ‘monster’ that made the SMAR conceptual model ‘right for the wrong reasons’  Monomoy Goswami and Kieran M. O’Connor
Poster To what extent the SIM hydrological model can it be poor, and why?  Florence Habets, Pere Quintana Segui and Eric Martin
Poster Very good prediction of a distributed rainfall runoff model but for all wrong reasons  Pawan Kumar Thapa and Andras Bardossy
Poster Identification and characterization of « outlier » catchments in the upper part of the Mosel river basin  Claire Lang, Gilles Drogue, Didier François, Daniel Viville, Etienne Dambrine and Nadine Angeli
Poster Hydrological outliers: when monstrosity stems from a bad initialization of rainfall-runoff models  Nicolas Le Moine and Vazken Andréassian
Poster Monsters redemption with the help of upstream flow measurements  Julien Lerat
Poster The Serein River: a lovely leaky catchment  Florent Lobligeois, Julien Lerat, Yan Lacaze, Sylvain Chesneau and Olivier Piotte
Poster Hydraulic-hydrologic spatially distributed modelling of extreme flood events with overbank flow on farmed catchments  Jérôme Ghesquière, Dennis Hallema, Roger Moussa
 
    Session 3 : There are no hydrological monsters, only models with huge uncertainties
 

 This session focused on strategies to deal with monsters by explicitly quantifying uncertainties. Presetations dealt with:

  • Models with explicit stochastic (i.e. uncertainty-accounting) terms;
  • Uncertainty estimation, quantifying uncertainties according to the different sources of variability;
  • Bayesian vs frequentist setting of inference;
  • Ungaged catchments and regionalization issues.
Keynote presentation There are no hydrological monsters, only models with huge uncertainties! George Kuczera
Poster Impact of uncertain rainfall on distributed hydrological modelling: successful or unsuccessful story? Daniela Balin and Michael Rode
Poster Balance between calibration objectives in hydrological modelling Martijn J. Booij and Maarten S. Krol
Poster Can the spatial variability of rainfall explain why some catchments appear monstrous? Marie Bourqui, Charles Perrin, Vasken Andréassian and Cécile Loumagne
Poster Bayesian tools to include historical monster floods in a statistical inference Eric Gaume
Poster Study of sensitivity of the Bayesian recursive parameter estimation (BARE) to the "monstrosity" of the discharges Mouna Laaroussi and Zoubeida Bargaoui
Poster A toy model to study the modification of the tail of probability distribution function by a catchment Thierry Leviandier
Poster Predictions in Ungaged Catchments: Favoring Hydro-diversity rather than Hydro-Eugenics Ludovic Oudin, Vazken Andréassian, Charles Perrin, Claude Michel and Nicolas Le Moine
Poster Mapping outlier catchments in terms of mean annual streamflow, baseflow and flood estimation at the country scale Marine Riffard and Vazken Andréassian
Poster Log transformations in hydrology of extremes: discussion on the range of applicability Renata Romanowicz
Poster Absolute versus relative outliers: identifying catchments which are outliers for all models and catchments which are outliers for some models only Mamoutou Tangara, Charles Perrin, Vazken Andréassian and Jean-Louis Rosique
Poster Critical evaluation of parameter consistency and predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: a case study using Bayesian total error analysis Mark Thyer, Benjamin Renard, Dmitri Kavetski, George Kuczera, Stewart Franks and Sri Srikanthan
Poster Poor rainfall data quality leads to hydrological monsters David Post and Jean-Michel Perraud
 
    Session 4: There are no hydrological monsters, only decision-making issues
 

This session focused on decision making on hydrological monsters (catchments or events) and the issues of operational and/or real time modelling practice. Presetations dealt with:

  • Hydrological models linked with explicit or unexpressed decisional purposes;

  • Problems linked with the switch from simulation problems to forecasting issues;

  • Flood and low-flow forecasting ;

  • Statistical learning and model features updating.

 
Keynote presentation Title Roman Krzysztofowicz
Poster Estimating climate change impacts on river flows across the UK: how uncertainties in model structure can affect predictions Vickie A. Bell, Alison L. Kay, Robert J. Moore, Nick S. Reynard and Richard G. Jones
Poster Can a freakish event out of a long series be blamed for apparent model failure? An analysis of the sensitivity of continuous evaluation criteria   Lionel Berthet, Nicolas Le Moine, Vazken Andréassian, Julien Lerat and Charles Perrin
Poster On the assessment of uncertainties of flood discharge observations for hydrological models Hélène Bessière
Poster Title Lucien Duckstein
Poster Gauged catchments highly perturbed by human activities. Are we obliged to consider them as ungauged? The case of the Upper Rhone River Benoît Hingray, Bettina Schaefli, Abdelkader Mezghani, Markus Niggli, Gabriel Faivre, Frédéric Guex, Yasser Hamdi and André Musy
Poster Monsters in flood forecasting: can we reduce the number of 'outlier' catchments by using two different model initialization strategies? Pierre Javelle, Lionel Berthet, Patrick Arnaud and Jacques Lavabre
Poster How far can topographic control of flood response be used in distributed flood modelling and forecasting? Robert J. Moore, Steven J. Cole and Vicky A. Bell
Poster Searching for a universal hydrological criterion: in the land of the blind, the man with one eye is king Laetitia Moulin
Poster Will climate change turn our hydrological models into monsters? Charles Perrin, Meggy Hau, Pierre-François Staub and Vazken Andréassian
Poster No monsters, no miracles: hydrology is not an outlier of nonlinear sciences!  Daniel Schertzer, Shaun Lovejoy and Pierre Hubert
Poster Predictive Uncertainty in Hydrological Forecasting Ezio Todini
Poster Final days of the spring flood: looking for the melt of hidden snow Richard Turcotte, Alexandre Roy and Thomas-Charles Fortier Filion
Poster Complex hydrosystem could be manage: example of Charente basin? Fabien Christin